It might be a case of jumping from the proverbial frying pan into the fire for long-suffering Zimbabweans in 2025 as analysts are predicting a year full of political intrigue and continuing economic problems.
Zimbabweans endured a torrid 2024, which was characterised by one of the worst droughts in living memory, another currency collapse and political gamesmanship by President Emmerson Mnangagwa’s loyalists.
Mnangagwas’ backers last year started pushing for the extension of the 82 year-old ruler’s term of office beyond 2028, claiming that he needed more time to see his vision coming to fruition.
On three occasions, the Zanu PF leader said he would retire when his second and final term comes to an end but the ruling party’s annual conference held in Bulawayo in October last year passed a resolution that he must rule until 2030.
Ibbo Mandaza, a respected academic and political commentator, said all indications were that 2025 would be “very rough economically and politically”.
Mandaza cited last week’s removal of Central Intelligence Organisation (CIO) director general Isaac Moyo and Zimbabwe Republic Police commissioner general Godwin Matanga as some of the pointers to intensifying political infighting in Zanu PF.
Moyo was replaced by former Zimbabwe National Parks and Wildlife Management Authority director-general Fulton Mangwanya and Stephen Mutamba took over from Matanga.
Mnangagwa, who is on vacation until next month, last Friday also redeployed Public Service, Labour and Social Welfare minister July Moyo to the Energy and Power Development ministry, with Edgar Moyo shifting portfolios to take up the former’s portfolio.
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Mandaza said the rapid changes by the Zanu PF leader pointed to bigger problems politically.
“I mean, things are unraveling,” Mandaza said. “Things are unraveling and unraveling fast.
“All this apparent perspicacious action, perspicacious change of the guard points to a very uncertain situation within the regime itself.”
The Sapes Trust director said there was no hope in Zimbabwe’s opposition influencing the country’s political trajectory in a positive way this year. He said Zimbabweans had also been demobilised by the death of the opposition.
“So much so that they almost resigned to the situation and on the political front, the opposition movement, which is in disarray, completely compromised, if not completely, almost bought out, one might say,” Mandaza added.
“Well, the opposition in Parliament, there's nothing to say about that lot. And including the leadership of it outside Parliament, they are a disaster.”
Tendai Mbofana, a political analyst, said the ED2030 campaign was likely to distract government leaders from doing their work and this will worsen the country’s economic crisis.
“Things will get worse. Why do I say so? We have already seen from 2024 an increase in the push by the ED2030 group within Zanu PF, who are pushing for Mnangagwa to extend its term beyond 2028,” Mbofana told The Standard.
“So we expect this momentum to increase in 2025 and as you are already seeing, although it's more of a suspicion than anything that we have in fact, a lot of reshuffling that is happening in Cabinet.
“A lot of reshuffling in the security sector, especially the security sector; we saw with Matanga being removed and replaced by someone else even though he still had two years I'm sure to go on his contract.
“We have seen a lot of reshuffling in the military and there is a new director general of the CIO.
“So you are seeing these manoeuvres by President Mnangagwa, which most of us suspect are aimed at extending his term beyond 2028 to 2030.”
Former Citizens Coalition for Change (CCC) leader Nelson Chamisa is said to be plotting a political comeback in 2025 and his moves would be among the most watched developments this year.
Chamisa quit CCC, a party he had founded a year earlier, after controversial politician Sengezo Tshabangu emerged from nowhere and proclaimed himself its interim secretary general.
Tshabangu started recalling elected legislators and councilors, a move that has virtually decimated the country’s largest opposition party.
United Kingdom-based development economist Chenayi Mutambasere said Zimbabweans were not likely to get any reprieve on the economic front.
Mutambasere said Zimbabwe can only change its economic fortunes if leaders were serious about fighting corruption and dealing with the power crisis.
“If the government focuses on reducing corruption to avoid resource leakage this could literally save lives,” she said.
"Energy problems are going to worsen with the political instability in Mozambique."
Zimbabwe abandoned the RTGS currency in April last year and adopted the Zimbabwe Gold as the new local currency, but that failed to stop the economic problems that have been bedelving the country for years.
